Tehreek-e-Taliban ::: A Dead Horse

Taliban Tehreek has now lost its total moral in Pakistanis general public. Before a few years back a majority of peoples are in total favor of Taliban due to America and Pervez Musharraf’s activity against Pakistan and Afghanistan. After 2008’s elections Talibans was also thinking that government of Pakistan will end foreign melding, but this hope dead only in few months after the general elections when everyone noticed that newly born government is also going on the same with full speed on which musharraf’s cabinet act according the direction of United States.

As the Pakistani security forces have launched a considerable operation on the bastion of the Pakistani Taliban and their foreign affiliates, the question haunting everyone, predominantly the government and the military, is whether after reclaiming South Waziristanaq Agency, the trouble of the Taliban militancy and extremism / terrorism would be solved conclusively.

The respond could be in the unhelpful because Talibanisation, contrary to popular belief, does not exclusively have to do with South Waziristan Agency, Baitullah Mehsud (early murdered in a Drone Attack), Hakimullah Mehsud (replaced Ameer of TTP after the death of Baitullah Mehzud) and so on. It is an ideological conflict and once its perpetrators are defeated in South Waziristan, they would find a new base in some other part of the country, not necessarily the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Nevertheless, the South Waziristan offensive is an important milestone in the war against religious extremism and terrorism in the country.

Now if the military offensive is successful in the intelligence that the majority of thousands of Pakistani Taliban, al-Qaeda, Uzbek, Tajik, Arab and Chechen fighters etc. currently holed up in the Mehsud area of South Waziristan agency are either killed or captured then the offensive would go a long way to counter extremism and terrorism in the country. Because, without a doubt, the area is the largest stamping grounds for militants of various shades of ethnic & national backgrounds. So, recapturing the territory and bringing the terrorists and extremists to justice would set an example for the militants in other areas and split the links critical for their survival.

Another measure for gauging the success of the South Waziristan Agency operation would be that whether after reclaiming the area, the military denies it to the militants and terrorists in future. But this is a gigantic task and only an unmistakable successful military operation, followed by a considerable development drive in the area, could achieve it.

However, there are sufficient chances that the Pakistani Taliban and their foreign affiliates coming under severe pressure from the security forces operation would head for other areas of the country. In fact, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has devised a strategy that when coming under attack and pressure in South Waziristan Agency, the movement would spread to the rest of Pakistan, as it is a matter of survival. In case the militants move to other areas, it would spell disaster for the country. Because in comparison to a very limited war theatre in South Waziristan Agency, it would be impossible for the state to fight the militants in various areas of the country.

The possibility of militants spreading out is fairly strong against backdrop of the fact that most of the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan Agency are non-locals, mostly from the Punjab, NWFP and Kashmir. There are only a small number of hundred local Taliban really committed to the TTP. The majority of the Taliban present in Waziristan Agency are now either Uzbeks or from the Punjab. So, obviously, once under attack, these non-local militants have the choice to return to their respective areas or die in conflict against forces. Its also noticed that the countries will not accept there return in their homeland that’s why Uzbek, Tajik, Chechan, Afghan and Arab Taliban will accept to die instead to return in their respected homeland countries. This could be termed a tactical retreat on the part of the Taliban fighters and one should keep in mind that they believe in such retreat, considering it religiously permitted. This means that they may retreat to their respective areas, but as soon as they find opportunities, they would start either a local militant struggle in their own areas or in some other area where their 'brothers in arms' would find a base.

Although there are new and young fighters among those from the Punjab who joined the TTP in the first instance, yet most of the Punjabi Taliban, now part of the TTP, have been members of other banned militant and sectarian organizations. However, with the passage of time, these militant and sectarian organizations started combine with a common agenda of fighting against India in Kashmir. Furthermore, the most dangerous part of their agenda became the establishment of a clerical order in the country to realize an 'Islamic' state.

This sectarian and militant background of the Punjabi Taliban that feed on anti-India sentiments encouraged these organizations to restart their erstwhile activities. As these activists used to be based in the Punjab, there is a threat of a new wave of radicalization of the province. This does not augur well for the country and its future. Because, the Pashtun Taliban, who hosted the Punjabi and Kashmiri militants for long, would now expect of the Punjabi Taliban to provide them sanctuary in their areas.

The recent interview of Hakimullah Mehsud, released by Sky TV UK, is relevant here. Hakimullah Mehsud said that he would send his Talibans to the country's eastern border to fight Indian troops, once "an Islamic state is created in Pakistan". These are important words and one can understand there from what is on the mind of this militant commander and the other militants currently. The militants wanted to utilize the anti-Indian sentiments in the country, particularly its establishment, by offering to fight the country's archrival. Moreover, the statement of Hakimullah also shows what the ultimate objective of the militants is. It is establishing their concept of Islamic Shariah (Laws) in the country. The words of the militant commanders could also be interpreted in the sense that they are now eyeing the eastern border of Pakistan, alluding to the Punjab. Already, the militant attacks in Lahore and the army headquarters in Rawalpindi point towards the fact that the Punjabi Taliban are returning to their home province and launching attacks to enlarge the war zone. Only time would reveal whether they would be successful or not.

Something hot arranged by US / NATO Forces in Afghanistan, it’s wisely noticed that US / NATO Forces leaves empty their Check posts in Afghan Eastern Province Kantar before the start of Operation Raah-e-Raast by Pakistan Army. various peoples thinking that, this could be a gateway for Taliban to enter in to South Waziristan Agency or may run Taliban to Afghanistan to save their lives. Pakistan has already record its protest against this action taken by US / NATO Forces.